Unfolding extreme precipitation and flood events in the Kashmir Himalaya

Dar, Junaid and Hamid, Saima and Qayoom, Sameera and Remya, S. N. and Maity, Rajib (2025) Unfolding extreme precipitation and flood events in the Kashmir Himalaya. International Journal of River Basin Management. pp. 1-18. ISSN 1571-5124

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Abstract

Multi-day extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are a major driver of high-impact floods in the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB), yet their hydroclimatic characteristics and governing atmospheric mechanisms remain poorly constrained. This study examines EPEs over the Kashmir Himalaya during the summer monsoon (JJAS) for 1980–2020 using ERA5-Land precipitation, evaluated against Indian Meteorological Department rain-gauge data and observed river discharge at key hydrometric stations. EPEs are identified using a Peak Over Threshold approach based on the JJAS 90th percentile of daily rainfall, and their frequency, intensity and duration are quantified at both grid and station scales. Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope and a statistically detected post-2000 climate shift reveals a pronounced increase in multi-day EPE frequency and modestly longer event durations, strongest over high-elevation terrain. Coupled with steep slopes and high runoff efficiency, these shifts translate into elevated flood hazard, as evidenced by sharp, basin-wide discharge peaks associated with clustered multi-day EPEs. Synoptic diagnostics using ERA5 fields shows that the most damaging floods arise from coupled monsoon–western disturbance regime, where enhanced Bay of Bengal moisture transport at 850 hPa interacts with mid-tropospheric troughing and cyclonic vorticity. This integrated ISM–WD mechanism, exemplified by the September 2014 flood, sustains prolonged moisture convergence and extreme rainfall over the UJB. The results highlight EPE duration, sequencing and large-scale circulation coupling as crtical controls on flooding in Himalayan river basins.

Item Type:	Article
Authors:	Dar, Junaid and Hamid, Saima and Qayoom, Sameera and Remya, S. N. and Maity, Rajib
Document Language:	Language English
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Bay of Bengal moisture transport, mesoscale convective systems, low-level jet, multi-day sustained EPEs
Subjects:	Natural Sciences > Earth sciences > Geology, hydrology, meteorology Natural Sciences > Earth sciences > Geology, hydrology, meteorology > Climatology and weather
Divisions:	Azim Premji University - Bengaluru > School of Climate Change and Sustainability
Full Text Status:	None
URI:	http://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/id/eprint/6924
Publisher URL:	https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2025.2599319

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