Achieving high-integrity tree-planting projects in the voluntary carbon market

Agarwal, Shivani and Clark, Benjamin and Vaddi, Uday and Goveas, Nikhil and Nagendra, Harini and DeFries, Ruth (2025) Achieving high-integrity tree-planting projects in the voluntary carbon market. Environmental Research Letters, 20 (4). 044052. ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

Globally, the voluntary carbon market (VCM) is a popular mechanism for carbon emitters to purchase credits and offset their emissions. Despite criticisms of unclear carbon outcomes, long-term durability of projects, and impacts on local communities, there are few systematic studies that assess their ecological and social outcomes based on ground-level data and robust counterfactuals. This study synthesizes data from the carbon market registry, on-ground surveys, and satellite data to inform VCM standards and policies for land-use related carbon market projects in India. We analyzed satellite imagery to assess changes in tree cover in more than 20 000 plots participating in all VCM afforestation projects registered in the country as of 2022 and surveyed project developers to assess the implementation process and local households to and evaluate economic impacts for 366 households in two of the ongoing projects. We compare these results with comparable plots and households using statistical and machine learning approaches. We find robust evidence of increases in tree cover in both participating and comparable non-participating plots—however there are significantly higher increases in the former (average increase 48 compared to 26%). We also find increases in incomes and asset ownership in both participating and non-participating households in two projects, with significantly higher increases in income in one project and in assets in the other. However, half of the projects are no longer operational, which calls into question the durability of these projects despite positive outcomes for tree cover. Results suggest that VCM standards and policies that foster economic well-being of local stakeholders are more likely to deliver sustained carbon benefits. Successful, long-lasting projects provide examples that evaluation of project implementation plans for continuous engagement, economic incentives, and security of land tenure for local stakeholders at the outset could lead to more viable, long-term VCM projects. Robust counterfactual data on changes in tree cover and economic outcomes are critical for improving the integrity of the VCM.

Item Type:	Article
Authors:	Agarwal, Shivani and Clark, Benjamin and Vaddi, Uday and Goveas, Nikhil and Nagendra, Harini and DeFries, Ruth
Document Language:	Language English
Subjects:	Social sciences Natural Sciences > Life sciences; biology > Ecology
Divisions:	Azim Premji University - Bengaluru > School of Climate Change and Sustainability
Full Text Status:	Public
URI:	http://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/id/eprint/6910
Publisher URL:	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2Fadc3ac

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