The prospects of employment opportunities in India: a medium –term sectoral analysis

Parida, Purna Chandra and Centre for Sustainable Employment (2024) The prospects of employment opportunities in India: a medium –term sectoral analysis. Working Paper. Azim Premji University, Bengaluru.

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Abstract

Employment projection, particularly at the micro or sectoral level, is considered as a useful tool for economic planners and policymakers to have a better understanding of future trends and growth, and accordingly, the policies and planning could be designed for the supply side of the labour market. This study finds that there is a lack of literature in the recent past on the above issue in the context of India, hence in this paper, we have tried to estimate employment numbers for seven broad economic sectors for the period 2024-25 to 2030-31. The study uses “Top-down” approach to estimate and project the employment numbers by using the employment-output elasticities and forecasted values of growth rates of gross value added (GVA) at the sectoral level. Three broad conclusions have been drawn from the employment estimates. First, the agriculture and allied sector continued to be the dominant force in creating employment opportunities till 2030-31, however, a surge of employment in the sector in recent years may unlikely continue in the future. Second, the slowing down of economic activities in services sector is expected to dent high employment growth prospects in the sector. Third, a phenomenal rise of employment in industry particularly in manufacturing sector in recent years augurs well for the economy which is expected to remain buoyant in the medium term as well

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Authors:	Parida, Purna Chandra and Centre for Sustainable Employment
Document Language:	Language English
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Employment demand, sectoral analysis, projection, India
Subjects:	Social sciences > Economics > Labor economics
Divisions:	Azim Premji University - Bengaluru > Research Centre > Centre for Sustainable Employment
Full Text Status:	Public
Related URLs:	Publisher
Note:	CSE Working Paper# 59
URI:	http://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/id/eprint/5875
Publisher URL:	https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in

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