The perfect storm: human influence on the loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones

Leach, Nicholas J and Ermis, Shirin and Brocklehurst, Aidan and Kumar, Dhirendra and Georgios, Alexandros and Braun, Lukas and Dixon, Mark and Murphy, Justin and Shaffrey, Len (2026) The perfect storm: human influence on the loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones. Environmental Research Letters, 21 (14). p. 144018. ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

Abstract Storm Eunice was a severe windstorm that impacted Central Europe in February 2022. The meteorology and synoptic dynamics of Eunice have been studied in depth in several studies examining features of the storm such as its sting jet. The contribution of climate change to the storm dynamics and severity was examined in previous work, which found that in counterfactual weather forecasts—given an identical initial synoptic setup—climate change had measurably increased the severity of the storm. Here we move beyond meteorological attribution and quantify the role of climate change in the insured losses incurred during Eunice in, to the best of our knowledge, the first impact attribution of its kind for a European windstorm event. We combine the same counterfactual weather forecasts with three loss models, including two state-of-the-art commercial models, finding that the increases in meteorological severity do translate through to significant increases in estimated loss. We estimate a conditional increase in insured loss of nearly €2 bn between pre-industrial and present-day climates. Of particular note is the existence of several members within the forecast ensembles whose losses are far greater than what unfolded in reality. This includes one realisation, simulated in a warmer ‘future’ climate, in which the estimated loss could reach over 10x the realised loss during Eunice. The plausible existence of such a catastrophic loss is of considerable relevance to a wide variety of stakeholders across adaptation planning and the financial sector. We suggest that our results practically demonstrate not only the utility of counterfactual weather forecasts in quantifying impacts attributable to climate change, but also the value of academic—private partnerships in which the two sectors are able to bring different areas of expertise.

Item Type:	Article
Authors:	Leach, Nicholas J and Ermis, Shirin and Brocklehurst, Aidan and Kumar, Dhirendra and Georgios, Alexandros and Braun, Lukas and Dixon, Mark and Murphy, Justin and Shaffrey, Len
Document Language:	Language English
Uncontrolled Keywords:	extreme weather attribution, impact attribution, insurance, extreme weather, climate change, European windstorms, weather forecasting
Subjects:	Technology
Divisions:	Azim Premji University - Bengaluru > School of Climate Change and Sustainability
Full Text Status:	Restricted
URI:	http://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/id/eprint/7716
Publisher URL:	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2Fae886a

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