Determinants of unemployment duration in India

Kannan, Roshan (2025) Determinants of unemployment duration in India. Working Paper. Azim Premji University, Bengaluru.

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Abstract

Unemployment is one of the key macroeconomic variables used to assess the performance of an economy. However, there is a bias towards conceptualizing unemployment solely through its predominant measure of rates. Considering that rates alone do not reflect labor market conditions, especially in developing countries, it is crucial to include unemployment duration in analyzing labor market efficacy and the larger economy. This paper utilizes longitudinal data from CMIE to understand the determinants of unemployment duration through an OLS linear regression and survival analysis. It finds that the groups that experience longer spells of unemployment are young and old individuals, the highly educated, and upper caste individuals. Nonparametric survival analysis is also employed to account for censoring through the hazard and survival function. This model also finds that duration dependence is non-monotonic with individuals experiencing high initial re-employment probabilities before experiencing a decline in their hazard rates. However, analysis of re-employment wages and occupation indicates a positive association with unemployment duration which indicates potential benefits to extended job search

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Authors:	Kannan, Roshan
Document Language:	Language English
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Unemployment duration; Labor market outcomes; CMIE longitudinal data
Subjects:	Social sciences > Economics Social sciences > Economics > Labor economics
Divisions:	Azim Premji University - Bengaluru > Research Centre > Centre for Sustainable Employment
Full Text Status:	Public
URI:	http://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/id/eprint/6332
Publisher URL:	https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/

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